Governor Glenn Youngkin said in a Monday statement that Virginia revenues met his office’s expectation during the first half of the 2023 fiscal year. The governor’s confirmation comes as he seeks to pass his new budget, which forecasts a “mild recession” in the next two years.
Youngkin’s office confirmed in its press release that “general fund revenues for December 2023 remain in line with updated revisions to the official revenue forecast,” and state revenues grew by 0.2 percent and 7.1 percent over the course of the year.
“Through the first half of the fiscal year, our forecast continues to correctly reflect the economic risks and uncertainty on the horizon,” the governor said in a statement that stressed the importance of “lowering the cost of living” and “empowering an economic environment for our companies to compete and win to drive job growth” in Virginia.
Secretary of Finance Stephen Cummings noted revenues were “slightly” higher than anticipated, but declared that “given broad economic risks and uncertainty around refunds and notwithstanding collections, a cautious outlook is warranted.”
That cautious outlook may be reflected in the budget Youngkin proposed in the Virginia House of Delegates in December 2023, in which the governor sought to prepare the commonwealth for a “mild recession” that could begin before he leaves office in 2025.
In his Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast for the budget, Cummings similarly noted that “2023 general fund revenue collections proved resilient” but declared, “The forecast for the 2024-26 biennium” takes a cautious approach “by incorporating a mild recession, while providing for responsible tax relief and tax reform, and a structurally balanced budget.”
Specifically, Youngkin is anticipating “a mild three-quarter recession beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024,” which would seemingly begin in October or November.
The governor also told Bloomberg in December 2023, “there are parts of our American economy that are already in recession,” specifically citing real estate development as an area of concern. He added, “These fears of recession I think are well grounded, and I believe that there’s real risk next year of recession.”
Those remarks came before Youngkin clarified that his decision to endorse the eventual Republican nominee charged with challenging President Joe Biden in November is partially inspired by a desire to see the economy improve. Youngkin explained to CNBC, “I know that we’re hoping there will be a soft landing in the economy, I am planning for a mild recession next year, I think it’s inevitable.” He added, “We’re already seeing recession type of activity in a number of industries and sectors.”
Youngkin’s warnings about a recession echo those by The Conference Board, an international nonprofit that predicted in November 2023 the United States will experience a “very short” recession this year, and the country’s “real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent in 2024.”
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Georgia Star News, The Virginia Star, and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Glenn Youngkin” by Governor of Virginia. Background Photo “Virginia Capitol” by Martin Kraft. CC BY-SA 3.0.
